More Panama perspective on Climate change. Ex-Pats take notice.

Conservation

https://www.prensa.com/impresa/vivir/el-ascenso-de-los-mares/

A year ago I wrote an article in La Prensa warning about the future impacts of sea level rise in Panama. I used a playful analogy about the fact that the Isthmus of Panama emerged from the sea 3 million years ago, and that, with the current climate change, the sea will rise again and return to recover the isthmus in its depths.

The predictions about the impact of sea level rise in coastal cities like Columbus were, at the time, disconcerting. New data, recently published, forces us, however, to look again at the geographical location of Panama against the undeniable fact that the sea level is rising.

“Very soon we will face a big problem, especially since the speed at which the seas are increasing in volume accelerates as we release more greenhouse gases.”

Aaron O’Dea, marine biologist and paleobiologist

How fast and why?

The sea is rising because we are heating the Earth through the emission of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide. Human activities release a large amount of carbon dioxide by burning fossil fuels. The fuels that drive your car and generate electricity for air conditioning. They are used for the production of phones, your clothes and the soles of your shoes. Virtually everything we use, every minute of every day, even the food we eat, depends on the burning of fossil fuels. It is an inevitable part of modern life and has brought great benefits to us.

According to the 2018 report of the Publications Office of the European Union, Panama releases around 12,000,000,000 kilograms of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year: the weight of around 200 Panamax ships. Although it is a large amount of gas, it only corresponds to 0.03% of the total that humans release worldwide.

Researchers in the scientific field

Aaron O’Dea is a marine biologist and paleobiologist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and Milton Solano is an analyst at GIS (Geographic Information Systems) also at the Smithsonian Institute.

A single person in Panama is responsible for the emission of around 3 tons of carbon dioxide each year. In Costa Rica and Colombia for example, they are only 1.5 tons per person per year, while in the United States it corresponds to 16 tons per person per year.

The carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere acts like a blanket, stopping the heat that the earth radiates back into space. The more carbon dioxide, the thicker the blanket will be and the hotter the earth will become.

Currently, some parts of the world are warming faster than others. The Arctic, for example, is one of the areas with the highest warming rates. Panama is also warming up, but fortunately not as fast as the Arctic. I live without air conditioning and I appreciate this little comfort.

Global warming from carbon dioxide emissions is causing the sea level to rise, not only because the glaciers that fill the oceans like a bathtub melt, but also because the hot water expands, increasing its volume, under a process called thermal expansion.

Since the beginning of the 20th century, the level of the seas has increased around 150 mm. That is approximately the height of an iPhone 8 Plus. Each year the sea level increases 3 mm. That doesn’t seem like much, right? After all, your nails grow 100 times faster than the sea. But, if we add year after year, we will soon face a big problem, especially since the speed at which the seas are increasing in volume accelerates as we release more greenhouse gases.

What will happen in Panama?

No one in their right mind suggests that the sea is not rising. Even some world leaders who refuse to recognize climate change are preparing for the inevitable loss of land. In Panama we can all see the effects of rising sea with our own eyes. The islands of Guna Yala are smaller than they used to be, the beaches are narrower and the coastal houses are crumbling in the sea.

But what about the future? Scientists constantly improve the models they use to predict, and a range of possible outcomes comes out. The most optimistic models predict that the sea will rise another 50 cm by the end of this century. This will be enough to endanger the homes of some 50,000 Panamanians living near the sea. Most people living in Guna Yala, Burica, Changuinola and Colón, who are among the poorest in the country and without resources to compensate for their migration.

In the worst case scenario they will rise 2 more meters above the current levels. That is more than the height of a Toyota Hilux (standard kit). If that happens, half a million Panamanians will be at risk of flooding during high tides. Under this scenario, most of the people affected will be the middle and upper class living in areas such as Costa del Este.

The rise of the seas
The rise of the seas

Forecast

People often ask me “what can I do to help?” The answer is not easy. It is true that we can take simple measures to reduce consumption and, therefore, greenhouse gas emissions, but the biggest change will come through the main political movements. However, it is a sad fact that, even if emissions are reduced, the global sea level will continue to rise and millions of people worldwide will have to migrate.

The map reproduced in this article uses new data to show which areas of Panama City are most likely to be threatened by floods in just the next 30 years. I recommend you take a look at the maps at https://coastal.climatecentral.org. Even if you doubt whether you will be alive in 30 years, your children will be, so it is still worth your valuable time.

These maps are not accurate since increases in sea levels do not occur uniformly throughout the world and we simply have no idea how fast sea levels will rise in Panama. Like all countries with coastal areas, Panama must urgently support research on sea level rise in the isthmus, determine which land areas will be threatened, what can be protected and which people will need more assistance for their inevitable migration.

Good predictions allow you to plan ahead. For example, there are large tracts of mangroves along the Pacific coast of the isthmus that act as a protective shield for the lowlands around David, the Gulf of Parita and East Coast. If these mangrove areas are not protected from deforestation, these coastal areas will be discovered and suffer the greatest consequences of rising sea levels.

Good construction practices are also essential. The “Causeway” in Panama City, for example, was built 100 years ago from the dispossession of the construction of the Panama Canal to link Amador with the Naos, Culebra, Perico and Flamenco islands. Recently renovated, the causeway is now a revitalized attraction where locals and visitors can wander around, enjoy the scenery, the cool breeze and the safe bike lanes, eating a scrape. However, the new causeway was built at the same height as the original. At high tide, seawater is already emerging from the drains. In 30 years it will flood. If climate change had been taken into account, the new causeway could have lasted another 100 years.

The inescapable will happen

Countries that take the threat of climate change seriously can adapt. Research is desperately needed to predict what will happen to Panama in the face of rising sea levels.

This article was developed in conjunction with Milton Solano, an analyst at GIS (Geographic Information Systems).

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