Colombia has entered the final stretch of one of the most polarized elections in its recent history. After the first round of the presidential election held on May 31, right-wing lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella and left-wing senator Iván Cepeda advanced to the runoff on June 21, in a contest that pits two opposing visions for the country against each other.

De la Espriella surprised everyone by leading the first round with 43.7% of the votes, while Cepeda obtained 40.9%, a difference of less than three percentage points that leaves the outcome completely open.

With more than 20 million votes between the two candidates, the key to the second round will be to win over those who supported the eliminated candidates and to mobilize those who abstained.

The approximately 2.8 million votes that went to other candidates could tip the balance in either direction.

Among those endorsements, Senator Paloma Valencia stands out, having garnered approximately 6.9% of the vote. Both she and former President Álvaro Uribe Vélez have already expressed their support for De la Espriella, which could strengthen the right-wing candidate’s position heading into the second round.

However, analysts believe that the behavior of centrist voters will be equally decisive. Voters who supported moderate options still lack a clear direction and could become the deciding factor in the election.

The right-wing candidate comes in with a numerical advantage and the momentum of having exceeded poll expectations.

Their strategy involves consolidating the conservative vote and attracting those who prioritize issues such as security, combating armed groups, and toughening policies against crime.

His “tough on crime” rhetoric, promises to build mega-prisons, and his image as a political outsider allowed him to connect with sectors dissatisfied with the country’s security situation. This narrative has led to comparisons with leaders like Nayib Bukele.

However, De la Espriella’s main challenge will be to reduce the fear he generates among moderate voters who believe that some of his proposals could pose risks to democratic institutions. Convincing these voters will be key to expanding his electoral base.

For Cepeda, the challenge is to go beyond the electorate that supports President Gustavo Petro’s government.

Although he achieved a historic vote for the Colombian left, he needs to gain support from independent citizens and centrist sectors that did not back the ruling party in the first round.

His campaign will seek to present the election as a choice between the continuation of the social policies championed by Petro and a potential shift to the radical right. He will also attempt to mobilize voters who are concerned about his rival’s security proposals and ideological positions.

Furthermore, Cepeda will have to convince voters that he can govern beyond the traditional bases of the Historical Pact and offer guarantees of economic and political stability should he reach the Casa de Nariño.

Beyond alliances, citizen participation will be one of the most important factors. Experts point out that higher voter turnout could completely alter the outcome of the first round.

Projections indicate that the winning candidate could need between 10 and 12 million votes, depending on the level of participation recorded on June 21.

The polls also reflect an extremely competitive scenario. While some surveys give Cepeda the advantage, others show De la Espriella leading in voter intention, evidence of an open race without a clear favorite.

The campaign that is beginning will be dominated by the debate on security, the economy, democratic institutions and the legacy of Petro’s government.

Both candidates will have to convince millions of voters who did not support them in the first round and demonstrate that they can govern a deeply divided country.

With just a few weeks to go, Colombia is heading towards a runoff election that will define not only its next president, but also the political course the nation will follow for the next four years.