The war in Ukraine is slowing down the fragile economic recovery that the world had begun after the covid-19 crisis, the UN said on Wednesday, lowering its global growth forecast for this year from 4% to 3.1% and warned that the deterioration may end up being even greater.
The United Nations expects the main economies to grow in 2022, but at a clearly lower rate than it calculated in January, when it had presented its most recent projections.
The Ukrainian conflict and its impact on energy and food prices, the general rise in inflation and the tightening of monetary policies to respond to this situation are the main factors in the change.
“The war in Ukraine, in all its dimensions, is triggering a crisis that is also devastating for global energy markets, disrupting financial systems and exacerbating extreme vulnerabilities for the developing world,” the secretary-general said in a statement. of the UN, António Guterres.
The European Union (EU), due to its links with Russia, appears as the most affected among the world’s large economies and, according to the UN, will grow 2.7% in 2022, far from the 3.9% that the organization estimated At the beginning of the year.
In the case of the United States, the growth forecast goes from 3.5% to 2.6%, while in China it is 4.5%, 7 tenths less than before.
Obviously, the biggest blow in the whole world is for Ukraine, whose economy will collapse between 30% and 50% as a result of the war, while Russia will clearly feel the effect of international sanctions and will suffer a contraction of 10%. .6%.
Limited growth in Latin America
Latin America, for its part, will grow this year by 2.1%, according to the UN, thus lowering its January estimate by one tenth, which already showed a slow recovery due to higher prices of raw materials and lower demand from China and USA.
The current situation further complicates the situation due to inflation, the increase in the cost of state financing in the markets and the expected impact on agricultural production in countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay as a result of problems in the supply chain. and the rising cost of fertilizers due to the war in Ukraine.
Despite this, the UN revised the growth forecast for South America slightly upwards (1.8%), which contrasts with a clear reduction for Mexico and Central America, which went from 3.4% to 2.2%.
The Caribbean, despite a small negative revision, will grow at a very good pace (11.2%) thanks to the recovery of tourism after the blow caused by the pandemic.
At a global level, the UN warns that the rise in inflation will be felt especially in the most disadvantaged households, which precisely dedicate a very important proportion of their income to food and energy, two areas that are becoming especially expensive.
The United Nations estimates that global inflation will increase by 6.7% this year, more than double the average seen between 2010 and 2020.