https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2024/08/15/a-bold-plan-to-close-the-deadly-darien-gap-unravels

At a migrant shelter in the thick jungle of Colombia’s Darién region a restaurant advertises fried fish, pork chops and 5G internet. A sign in cheerful bubble letters points the way to the border with Panama. Yet just a 30-minute walk along the muddy, steep path from the restaurant, a razor-wire fence stretches between the trees. “All I can say is that this route is closed,” says an agent from Senafront, Panama’s border force, an automatic rifle hanging from his shoulder. “As for 500 metres that way, or a kilometre that way, I don’t know what to tell you.”

The border agent’s response typifies the mess at the Darién Gap, a treacherous stretch of jungle between Colombia and Panama. In recent years the number of migrants crossing it en route to the United States has rocketed (see chart). President Joe Biden’s administration is desperate to stanch the flow. It thought it had found a kindred spirit in Panama’s new president, José Raúl Mulino, who campaigned for office pledging to “close” the border. On July 1st Mr Mulino’s government signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States which laid out the countries’ intention to send illegal migrants home. But just weeks later Mr Mulino appears to be backtracking. This has blindsided the United States and is worsening the chaos in the jungle.

The Darién Gap was long considered too dangerous to cross. Those who dared had to cope with poisonous snakes, rapid rivers, and bandits who rape and rob travellers. But rising violence, tyranny and economic hardship in Latin America and beyond are pushing ever-larger numbers of people to make the perilous trek. In 2014 fewer than 10,000 migrants crossed the gap. Last year more than 500,000 did. Another surge is expected as a result of Venezuela’s presidential election on July 28th, which was stolen by the ruling autocrat, Nicolás Maduro.

Under the agreement signed by the governments of Messrs Mulino and Biden, migrants who do not have the right to be in Panama would be sent home on flights paid for by the United States. Panama has received an initial sum of $6m to equip and train Senafront agents and to pay for repatriation flights. On August 14th the two heads of state had a telephone call in which they confirmed that the flights would begin at the end of the month. Mr Mulino has sent more agents to patrol the border and has blocked several routes through the jungle with barbed wire.

On paper, the plan is clear. In practice, it is impossible to fulfil. Almost everyone needs a valid passport to enter Panama legally, and many people need a visa. But according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees only 7% of Venezuelan migrants, who make up two-thirds of those crossing the gap, have valid passports. Visas are also vanishingly rare. This means that virtually all Darién Gap migrants could be deemed fit for deportation. In order to send them home, Panama would need to have agreements with the receiving countries. Discussions are beginning with Colombia and Ecuador. Following Mr Maduro’s electoral fraud, Panama’s government suspended diplomatic relations with Venezuela.

In the face of these and other logistical hurdles, Mr Mulino appears to have given up on the original plan. On July 18th he said that deportation flights would be voluntary. If migrants do not want to return home, he said, “then they’ll go [to the United States]. I can’t arrest them, we can’t forcibly repatriate them.” Only wanted criminals would be forcibly expelled.

Yet hardly anyone will choose to go back home. Venezuela is in economic free-fall, which has led almost 8m people to flee the country. Mr Maduro is tightening his tyrannical grip. Since the election, over 2,400 protesters have been detained. Haiti and Ecuador, the sources of the next-largest groups of travellers, are dealing with extreme gang violence. With the worst of their journey behind them, the vast majority of migrants will push on.

Instead of closing the border, Panama’s government is now talking about creating a “humanitarian corridor”. Jorge Gobea, the head of Senafront, says the barbed wire and additional border agents are intended to “funnel the flow of migrants through a single route” which can be managed. Many migrants now have their biometric data taken and undergo criminal-record checks at Cañas Blancas (see map). Then they hike to Lajas Blancas, where aid workers dole out food and shelter.

A puzzled Uncle Sam

The United States seems startled by this about-face. On the call on August 14th Mr Biden thanked Mr Mulino for supporting “orderly and humane migration.” Seemingly no mention was made of whether deportation flights would be voluntary.

The crux of the issue is that the two countries have different interests. Panamanian voters care little about migrants, who hop on buses heading north after emerging from the jungle. Instead, voters are worried about the growing lawlessness at the border. New Panamanian gangs are ambushing migrants. Colombian criminals are thriving, too. According to the International Crisis Group, a think-tank, the Clan del Golfo, a gang that controls the entrance to the jungle on the Colombian side, nets over $4bn a year. Much of it is thought to come from human trafficking.

In the United States worries over immigration could swing the coming presidential election. Historically, most migrants at the southern US border have come from Mexico and Central America. But since December 2023 more than half have come from farther afield, mainly Venezuela, Haiti and Ecuador. Almost all of these first cross the Darién Gap.

Differences over policy may widen. To reduce the gangs’ profits Frank Abrego, Panama’s public security minister, says that his office is considering running ferries to carry up to 2,000 people at a time from Colombia to Panama. As long as the migrants are not wanted criminals, they would be allowed to “continue in search of their American dream,” he says. That would raise eyebrows in Washington.

The confusion muddies matters on the ground. On their widely followed social-media accounts, smugglers offer “VIP” routes to skirt the humanitarian corridor and avoid the border authorities—sometimes with dire consequences. One Venezuelan woman says the traffickers promised her family that the trip would take two days and “we would be safe”. Instead they slogged through the jungle for five days, passed corpses of migrants who had died on the way, and were robbed by bandits. While governments quarrel, the suffering of migrants goes on. ■